Market Regime & Risk Gauge
One risk score from 0 to 100 and a market regime, built from six measures of the Indian market, with history since 2017 and what usually came next.
About the Market Regime & Risk Gauge
Markets move through phases: calm uptrends, choppy rallies, quiet declines and stressed sell-offs. This page measures which phase the Indian market is in now and gives it a single risk score from 0 to 100.
The score combines six measures, each compared with its own history since 2016: the trend of Nifty 500, how many NSE indices are above their 40-week average, Nifty 50 volatility, the fall from the 52-week high, small caps against large caps, and the Nifty 50 P/E. A history chart shows every regime since 2017, and a table shows what happened over the next three months after each one.
The history is not what most people expect: since 2017, stressed readings were often followed by rebounds, with bigger swings along the way. The page shows the numbers so the past can be judged as it happened.
Common questions
What is a market regime?
A regime describes the market's current character. This page uses two questions: is Nifty 500 above its 40-week average (uptrend or downtrend), and is volatility above or below normal (volatile or calm). That gives four regimes.
How is the risk score calculated?
Six measures are each ranked against their own history since 2016 and averaged. Each week uses only data available up to that week. 0 means calmer than almost all past weeks, 100 means more stressed than almost all.
Does a high risk score mean the market will fall?
Not reliably. Since 2017, high readings were often followed by rebounds, with bigger swings along the way. It describes conditions; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.